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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(11:13) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 14-D.Vele to MIN 23 for 4 yards (23-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.67 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model