Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 77

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ARI 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 34 for 14 yards (55-D.Barnes). PENALTY on ARI-35-K.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model