4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 7-J.Brissett sacked at DET 20 for -1 yards (sack split by 97-A.Hutchinson and 44-M.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.83 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model