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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 1
Detroit Lions 31 – Arizona Cardinals 14
What Actually Happened
(1:07) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.32 EP
KICK
+1.49 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT
-0.16 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
