4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 38-C.Ryland 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model