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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 27

Detroit Lions 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:57) 39-J.Bates 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model