Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 21

(3:15) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to DET 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 38 for 5 yards (0-C.Simon).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model