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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 8

Detroit Lions 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.68 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model