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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 12-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to DET 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.13 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP