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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 1 at the 38
Detroit Lions 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7
What Actually Happened
(9:38) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.80 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
- 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.19 EP
KICK
-0.04 EP
- 68% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
