Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 48 for 31 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 0-C.Simon). FUMBLES (80-S.Fehoko), recovered by DET-17-T.Martin at ARI 47.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.98 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model