Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to DET 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 46 for 11 yards (80-S.Fehoko; 42-D.Taylor-Demerson). DET-85-T.Kennedy was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.83 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 89, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model