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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 5

Buffalo Bills 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 16-T.Bass 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 5, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.81 EP