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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 32

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 92-H.Mevis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model