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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 23-K.Williams left guard to BUF 37 for 2 yards (24-C.Bishop; 21-D.Igbinosun).

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model