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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(6:56) 42-E.Evans punts 62 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-G.Dortch pushed ob at BUF 39 for 14 yards (33-D.Connors; 89-T.Higbee).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.79 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 87, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP