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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to BUF 30 for 10 yards (24-C.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.03 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model