4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 31 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP