4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 16-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -2.02 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.98 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model