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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 6 at the 50
Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(2:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.14 EP
Model's Pick
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK
-0.99 EP
- 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 65% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
What Happened
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
