Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 10-B.Mann punts 30 yards to CHI 16, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.44 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP

KICK -1.06 EP

45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
55% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model