Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 87

Chicago Bears 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-S.Daly. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at CHI 47 for 21 yards (87-S.Roush). PENALTY on PHI-7-K.Ringo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.18 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model