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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CHI 23, Center-41-R.Underwood. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 29 for 6 yards (83-J.Mundt).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model