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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 32

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 11-C.Keenum pass short left to 87-S.Roush to PHI 16 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.14 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model