4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 30

Chicago Bears 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model