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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 75

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to CHI 32, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model