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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 11

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model