4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 3

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (27-Q.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model