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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 25

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model