4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 30 for 5 yards (22-B.Jones). Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model