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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 62

Denver Broncos 16 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP