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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model