Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Denver Broncos 16

(14:50) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to DEN 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis to DEN 29 for 10 yards (56-S.Dolac; 49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.66 EP
71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model