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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 82

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.16 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model