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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 87

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to DEN 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-K.Katsis ran ob at LA 42 for 28 yards (42-E.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 87, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model