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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to LA 0, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 10 for 10 yards (34-J.Skinner).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model