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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 31-K.Abrams-Draine.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.21 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model