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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 47 yards to LA 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 19-X.Smith to LA 24 for 16 yards (51-Q.Robinson; 92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model