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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 92-H.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.51 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model