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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to LA 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.18 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP