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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 92-H.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model