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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 3-S.Shrader 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-3-S.Shrader has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model