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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones scrambles right end to HOU 18 for 1 yard (24-D.Stingley).

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.00 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model