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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:21) 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.75 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model