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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 31

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to IND 31 for no gain (0-C.Bynum; 99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model