4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 6

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP