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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 3-S.Shrader 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.09 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model