4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 28-J.Taylor right tackle to HOU 44 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model