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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 66

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 38-K.Kroeger punts 36 yards to IND 30, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.83 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model