Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 7

(7:57) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 13-J.Noel to HOU 28 for 11 yards (58-A.Ajiake).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.11 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model